Uncertainty is not logical—that’s the point!

Finally, 2024 US presidential Election Day is here. Does this mean the end of the persistent uncertainty pervading the country?

Surprisingly, resilient leaders exercise atypical behavior adjustments and hold more encompassing perspectives. I went looking to understand the nature of change and was surprised by what I came to learn.

Process still serves us

The scheduling of elections and the consistent process that was upended in the 2020 election created “stable uncertainty”– a term I head the pollster Patrick Murray reference in an interview with NBC News a few weeks ago. Think about major decisions that get delayed, the persistence of higher costs to ward off the risks that changes in government often bring.

Change is built into the Democratic process, its a principle of our Republic. Change is also embedded in the dynamic of of life, its always happening to us. Still, Psychologists find that it’s not change that causes harm, but our slow uptake that may take the form of resistance and refusal to cope.

In every election, partisan turn out matters. In tight races, malleable voters and late deciders challenge forecasters’ ability to predict within normal margins of error. These two blocks become source of uncertainty for the rest of us. Beginning with 2020, the process itself has become a source of uncertainty. The voting accommodations made for the pandemic and the subsequent social media chatter questioning every stage of the process lingers in this election too.

It’s not clear that late deciders are any less committed participants. They are equally likely to be genuinely torn or decision dawdlers. Ether way they find it difficult to choose which the partisan among us find incredibly difficult to understand.

In past elections, the malleable or independent minded take the form of resistance to the status quo, and consistently just vote for change. They believe the best way to preserve democracy is to prevent a single party or candidate from growing too complacent or assuming too much power. They seek to deny office holders the opportunity to continue to serve and consequently switch them out. This impulse allows them to be an active agent of change , and it may help them cope better too.

Wishful thinking

Change that results from action feels differently. Personally, when I voted early last week, the minute I checked the box for my candidate and my party’s choice, I felt a tingle of joy. That feeling lifted my spirits for the rest of the day. My smile and light spirt made me friendlier and kinder too.

Voting is an action, an important lever in preserving the Democratic process. Whether you believe change happens by chance, or not.

We could all benefit from a little more wishful thinking. By nature, our attention focuses on an immediate goal, keeping us focused and when problems arise, we are left feeling betrayed by our process. The secret to coping is by opening your focus, and allowing the unexpected to trigger new thinking. Stop your preconceptions from informing your reality. Mathematicians would encourage you to think exponentially, and begin using a less linear frame of reference to notice more of what’s happening.

Paying attention to what’s happening, and engaging with others is only a problem if you keep looking in the same place and expecting the same results. That’s not change

Regardless of the results, or the timing in which we learn the outcome, embracing the change will help you deal. More importantly, it also will increase the likelihood to connect information differently and seed better opportunities for everyone. Feel free to share what you find, and how it makes you feel.

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